Fahad shorted Bitcoin at 81,700 and caught roughly 1.2%, while explicitly refusing to short the obvious backtest. That is a Bitcoin short setup after a liquidity sweep, and the edge sits in why the crowd's version fails.
Friday's high was still intact and poor highs sat overhead, with the 81,900 to 82,500 zone less than 1% away. 'Not just for Bitcoin though,' he told chat early on. 'We will be doing it for gold.'
Key Takeaways
- The obvious retest short is the crowd's trade, so the stop run above it is where the real move starts.
- Set the bubble threshold deliberately, and check the footprint before trusting any big candle.
- Read crowd positioning in the hours before the event, because the first move often traps the people who chase it.
- Trail winners, leave open targets open, and stop after one trade so a loss cannot turn into revenge trading.
Shorting the 81,700 backtest gets you trapped before the dump
The textbook entry is a short on the retest of the previous low near 81,700, and that is exactly why it gets trapped. Price pushes into the 81,900 to 82,500 zone, clears short stops, pulls in breakout longs, then drops. Fahad's phrase for it: let both in, then trap both.
Friday's high was still intact, and the chart was full of poor highs, the unfinished highs the market comes back to take. The zone sat less than 1% above the previous low, and a double-top neckline breakdown was drawing plenty of shorts, which only fed the setup.
A liquidity sweep is price spiking through an obvious level to trigger resting orders before it reverses. That is the mechanism here.
Fahad was direct about the retest short: 'From a pure price action perspective, if you try to short the backtest of this previous low, that is perfect. Why can't I? Because I see poor highs.' Then the summary: 'Basically let shorts and let longs in, and we trap these shorts, we trap these longs.'
Bitcoin levels Fahad marked on the stream
| Level or zone | What it was | How Fahad treated it |
|---|---|---|
| Previous low near 81,700 | Backtest level, the textbook short | Entry shown on the chart, partial move of about 1.2% captured |
| 81,900 to 82,500 | Stop-run zone, less than 1% above | Expected price to push into it, take short stops, lure longs |
| Friday high | Still intact, a poor high | Liquidity the market comes back for |
| Volume gap below | Already filled | Treated as done |
The chart marks the 81,700 entry with the 81,900 and 82,500 levels on 15 minute candles. We went through a similar area in how to trade Bitcoin liquidity sweeps near 81,900.
Volume bubbles at a 30% threshold show what really moves price
Bubbles mark where the heaviest trading printed, and Fahad set the threshold to 30% on MMT so only meaningful volume shows. Lowering it adds bubbles and raising it filters noise. Because volume pushes price, studying it shows how far a move can realistically run.
Direction calls are cheap. Reading where volume and liquidity sit is the edge.
- Default settings on both TradingView and MMT, bubble threshold at 30%
- A big green candle looked like aggressive buying, but the footprint showed selling underneath
- Fahad wanted weekly volume and the anchored VWAP broken before pressing the short
That green candle is why he distrusts single-candle reads. Without the footprint, he said, he would have called it aggressive buying. For the mechanics, see how to read footprint chart delta without false signals.
On tools he was blunt: Bookmap is 'good but not the best', and when a viewer asked about a free order flow tool he said, 'Don't use it. I have used it and it does not work.' His view is that many of these tools are not built on real data.
Why does the obvious outcome of an event often reverse?
The crowd positions for the obvious result before a scheduled event, so price tends to do the opposite. Fahad read sentiment in the hours ahead of FOMC, expected a pump first and then a dump, and got exactly that. Positioning is a better read than the headline.
He did not wait for the news. The read came between roughly 7 and 9 pm, well before the news timing near 11:30. He had called it the previous day and corrected himself mid-sentence on stream: 'Sorry, the market will pump first and then it will dump.'
His rule, in his words: 'Figure out the sentiment of the market and the move. Whatever event is coming, the outcome is most of the time the opposite.' By the time price reached the top of the pump, he said, people read it as a breakout and tried to long. That is the Friday high trap again, run on a news clock.
For more on timing around releases, see how to trade Bitcoin around news events.
After a follower messaged him about the prediction, Fahad admitted he has to be careful with public calls. He said the plan played out as expected.
Oil long trailed, gold short left open, one trade a day
Fahad trailed the oil long, left the gold short as an open target with no entry yet, and kept to one trade per day. A winner needs the plan held, not extra size. The first loss is where revenge trading begins.
Oil came after a volume spike reversal on the 1-minute chart, with a trailing stop once price moved in his favour. It was later stopped out, which is what a trail is for. Our crude oil range high fakeout post covers a similar structure.
Gold was ranging on the 15 minute chart with the previous day's low still to be taken. 'I would short gold, Bitcoin here, that's the short trade plan, I'm keeping an open target.'
Trade plans across Bitcoin, oil and gold
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop and target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Short | 81,700 | Trailing stop, open target |
| Oil | Long | Not stated on stream | Trailing stop once in profit, open target |
| Gold | Short | None yet | Open target near the previous low |
Chat asked whether to move the Bitcoin stop to cost. Fahad: 'It's too soon, bro.' By the close, the trade had moved enough to bring it to breakeven.
One trade a day comes down to money. 'Money will always make you break rules,' he said, and one loss triggers the recovery mindset. 'You don't become Ambani in one trade.' More in how to handle losses without revenge trades.
The obvious trade belongs to the crowd, and the money sits in the orders they leave behind. Fahad passed on the clean retest short because he could see poor highs above, and he waited for volume to confirm instead of guessing direction.
FOMC ran on the same logic: the pump trapped breakout longs before the dump. Gold got the same patience, with the short left as an open target and no forced entry. Knowing where stops and volume are stacked is the work, and it is the part a chart pattern alone never shows.
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Watch the full stream: 🔴 BTC & Gold Live Trading | See Where Big Players Buy & Sell (Order Flow) on YouTube
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets and virtual digital assets are unregulated in India, are highly volatile, and can lose value rapidly; there is no established regulatory recourse for losses from them. The price levels, setups and trades described are a review of market events that have already occurred, shared to illustrate a method of analysis rather than to recommend any trade. Trading With Sidhant LLP is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst, and nothing here constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Income from virtual digital assets is taxable in India at 30% plus applicable cess, with 1% TDS on transfers. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research before trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is a liquidity sweep in Bitcoin trading?
- A liquidity sweep is a quick push through an obvious high or low to trigger the stops and orders resting there, followed by a reversal. On the Hitpoint stream, Friday's high was the target because stop orders sit above it. Fahad focused on where those orders were stacked rather than predicting direction alone.
- Why not short the backtest of the previous low in Bitcoin?
- The backtest short is the crowd's entry, and price can push higher to take their stops first. Fahad passed on it because poor highs sat overhead and the 81,900 to 82,500 zone was less than 1% away. Price runs the zone, longs chase the breakout, then the market dumps.
- What does a 30% volume bubble threshold do on MMT?
- It filters which volume prints show up as bubbles, so only the heavier trading appears. Fahad used 30% on MMT with otherwise default settings. Lowering the threshold adds more bubbles and more noise, while raising it leaves only the biggest prints, which he treats as the driver of how far price moves.
- Why do markets often move opposite to the expected outcome of FOMC?
- The crowd positions for the obvious outcome before the event, so price often moves the other way. Fahad read sentiment between roughly 7 and 9 pm, expected a pump and then a dump, and saw both. The pump looked like a breakout, longs piled in, and the dump took them out.
- When should a trader move a stop loss to breakeven?
- Not early. When a chat viewer asked about moving the Bitcoin stop to cost, Fahad said it was too soon. He brought it to breakeven only by the close, after the trade had moved far enough in his favour. Moving it too early risks getting tagged by normal pullback noise.
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