Fahad was already short from 78,600 to 78,500, reporting roughly 200% open gain with nothing booked, when the squeeze arrived. The Bitcoin weekend pump and Monday reversal had played out almost to the script he gives members every Monday. Then shorts started getting liquidated across Bitcoin, gold, silver and oil, and his bias on BTC flipped long at the VWAP reclaim near 77,807.
'Crazy stuff, brother. Crazy.' This is how the session built up, where it turned, and the one rule he repeated about not buying the top.
Key Takeaways
- A weekend pump with an untouched Friday high gives a Monday sweep setup, but rising open interest means the same trade can turn into a squeeze.
- Fear and greed trap traders on both sides, so a string of red weeks usually needs an indecisive candle before the next real move.
- A cheap asset that nobody rushes to buy shows weak purchasing power, which is a market structure signal and not just a price story.
- Waiting for a named trigger such as a bearish close or a reclaim keeps you out of indecisive charts and bad risk-reward trades.
- Buy the reclaim after the squeeze starts, keep the stop trailing, and let the pullback come instead of chasing the top.
A weekend pump into 78,500 set up the Monday short
A Bitcoin weekend pump often sweeps liquidity on Monday or Tuesday before it reverses. Fahad saw Friday's high left untouched through Saturday and Sunday, so the Monday open sweep of that high set up a short in the 78,500 to 78,600 zone, while open interest climbed and shorts turned aggressive.
Fahad gives members the same line every Monday: 'If the market pumps on weekends, it should be on Monday or Tuesday.' He means one of those days takes out all the liquidity. This Monday fit the pattern, and he said as much in the opening minutes.
- Short zone: 78,500 to 78,600, still open on the stream and added to on pullbacks
- Open gain: reported at roughly 200%, no profit booked
- Weekend high: Friday's high was not exceeded on Saturday or Sunday
- Open interest: rising while shorts were aggressive, which is the squeeze risk sitting inside the setup
The chart below shows the 15 minute BTCUSDT session with the short zone and the later long zone marked. A 75,000 line is on it too, though Fahad said he was not targeting that directly and named 76,000 as a possible level.
Rising OI cuts both ways. Fresh shorts into a pumped market can work as fuel for a reversal, or as fuel for a squeeze, and we went through that read in how to read Bitcoin open interest and CVD when price rises.
For a near-identical setup, see the 78,500 weekend pump sweep plan. CryptoPotato has also questioned whether weekend rallies hold.
Consecutive red weeks need breathing room before a reversal
Reversals need trapped traders, and a run of red weekly Bitcoin candles cannot go on forever. Fahad expected an indecisive, probably green weekly candle to give new buyers some room, driven by fear and greed. On the weekly, a strong upside wick sat above a poor low, and six days were still left in the candle.
He pointed out there was no green week between the red ones. 'Multiple red weeks cannot be done consistently, you need some breathing room.' A bounce, even a weak one, pulls in late buyers and traps sellers who chase the low.
Indecision first, direction after. That is why he was not expecting a clean waterfall off the Monday short. The zones are mapped in our Bitcoin weekly support and resistance map.
Gold is cheap but Diwali demand barely moved
Gold sits in the discounted part of a long range, yet jewellery shop staff told Fahad that Diwali demand had not risen aggressively. Investors are watching the lower zone while consumers feel inflation pressure. Weak purchasing power and a slow response suggest strain in the market structure.
Fahad visited a jewellery shop in the festive buying season. Price was lower, and buyers were not rushing in.
He was openly frustrated that gold, which was always supposed to be pushing higher and be 'the savior of the market,' is in its worst condition in a while. The earlier high above 4,100 was his reference for how far it had fallen.
'Everyone understands gold. Nothing else apart from that.' When the one asset everybody understands is cheap and people still hold back, it tells you about their wallets, not the chart.
Gold and oil shorts waited on reclaims, not first moves
Neither gold nor oil got a market order from Fahad. Gold needed a strong bearish 15-minute close near the previous day equilibrium, with 3,920 as the target. Oil needed a pullback near 99.17 after its double top, and he had already been stopped out of oil earlier in the session.
The charts were indecisive and he said so. 'Let's just wait for the reclaim of that.' The idea was to trade the reclaim of VWAP or a broken level, not the first move.
Silver had been dumped on the daily, but he kept it neutral. He also admitted the risk-reward on a fresh Bitcoin short was poor, so he held off.
Fahad's pullback setups across gold, oil, silver and a new Bitcoin short:
| Instrument | Bias | Trigger | Level or target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD (gold) | Short | Strong bearish 15-minute close near previous day equilibrium | Target 3,920 | Waiting |
| Oil (WTI) | Short | Pullback after double top and poor highs | Around 99.17, previous week low area | Stopped out earlier, waiting for pullback |
| Silver | Neutral | None named, dumped on the daily | None | Neutral |
| Bitcoin (new short) | Short | Poor risk-reward at current levels | None | Passed |
We have written up the same patience on gold in how to trade a gold VWAP rejection without forcing a short and on oil in how to trade a crude oil range high fakeout.
The squeeze validated a VWAP reclaim long, not a top chase
Once shorts were liquidated across Bitcoin, gold, silver and oil, Fahad flipped his Bitcoin bias to long at the VWAP reclaim near 77,807 to 77,816. The stop trailed beneath the reversal point, the target stayed open-ended, and he told chat not to buy the top of the squeeze.
The squeeze was the scenario he had framed at the start of the stream. CVD spiked sharply as it happened, and the Monday short stayed open alongside the new long.
Side by side, the two Bitcoin trades from the stream looked like this:
| Trade | Entry zone | Reasoning | Exit plan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday short | 78,500 to 78,600 | Weekend pump sweep, rising open interest, aggressive shorts | 76,000 as a possible level |
| Squeeze long | 77,807 to 77,816 | VWAP reclaim, sharp CVD spike, shorts liquidated | Trailing stop under the reversal point, open-ended target |
Buy the reclaim, then let the pullback come. Velotrade describes price holding above VWAP as buyers in control, and our own take is in how to trade a Bitcoin VWAP reclaim without chasing.
His chat answer was blunt: 'Don't try to go long on top. I mean, it could be 4,000 from here.' He also did not trust the speed, saying the moves in gold and silver were not sustainable.
The oil chart marks the 99.17 zone he wanted for a pullback short. He had already been stopped out earlier, and joked that he sounded like a typical YouTuber blaming the market maker for watching his stream, since one wick took his stop and the market dumped.
Flexibility without panic was the session's main lesson. Fahad held a Monday short from 78,600 to 78,500 on a clear read of a weekend pump, then flipped long at the 77,807 VWAP reclaim once the squeeze showed up in CVD. He kept the short open, trailed the long and told chat not to chase tops, and passing on a poor risk-reward Bitcoin short mattered as much as any trade he took.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets and virtual digital assets are unregulated in India, are highly volatile, and can lose value rapidly; there is no established regulatory recourse for losses from them. The price levels, setups and trades described are a review of market events that have already occurred, shared to illustrate a method of analysis rather than to recommend any trade. Trading With Sidhant LLP is not a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser or Research Analyst, and nothing here constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Income from virtual digital assets is taxable in India at 30% plus applicable cess, with 1% TDS on transfers. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research before trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Does Bitcoin usually reverse on Monday after a weekend pump?
- Often enough that Fahad tracks it every week, but it is a pattern and not a guarantee. His read is that a weekend pump tends to sweep liquidity on Monday or Tuesday before reversing. On this stream, Friday's high stayed unbroken over the weekend, which set up the Monday sweep and the short from 78,500 to 78,600.
- Why does a Monday open sweep of Friday's high matter for shorts?
- It takes out the liquidity sitting above the weekend high, which gives shorts a cleaner place to enter. If the high stays unbroken through Saturday and Sunday, stops and breakout orders pile up above it. Fahad treated the Monday sweep of that high as the trigger zone for his 78,500 to 78,600 short.
- What is a VWAP reclaim and how do you trade it after a short squeeze?
- A VWAP reclaim is when price moves back above the volume weighted average price and holds it. Fahad bought the reclaim near 77,807 to 77,816 during the squeeze, with a trailing stop below the reversal point and an open-ended target. He bought the pullback on the reclaim instead of chasing the first spike.
- Why shouldn't you buy the top of a short squeeze?
- Squeezes are fast, forced moves that often retrace sharply, so buying the top gives you poor entry and a wide stop. Fahad told chat, 'Don't try to go long on top,' and said he did not think the moves in gold and silver were sustainable. He preferred waiting for the pullback and reclaim.
- How do consecutive red weekly candles affect Bitcoin's next move?
- Several red weeks in a row make an indecisive or green weekly candle more likely, because trapped traders and fresh buyers are needed for any reversal. Fahad said multiple red weeks cannot continue consistently without some breathing room. He expected indecision, not a clean waterfall, with six days left in the weekly candle.
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